MORTGAGE HOLDERS DEFYING PREDICTIONS AND MANAGING DEBT
However, there is one group spending their savings at a faster rate than the rest
By Bronwyn Allen
Thu, Mar 28, 2024 10:33am
3 min
3 min
The number of home loans in arrears are less than one percent of all borrowers, defying predictions of dire outcomes from a ‘mortgage cliff’ and the impact of high interest rates and cost of living pressures.
Most borrowers are making their home loan repayments on time, and although the number of loans in arrears has increased since late 2022, they represent only a tiny portion of the market, according to the Reserve Bank (RBA). Less than 1 percent of all housing loans are 90 or more days in arrears, which is lower than the pre-pandemic peak.
In its latest Financial Stability Review released this month, the RBA said households remain under pressure from high inflation and interest rates, with consumer sentiment very weak. More Australians than usual are seeking support from community organisations, and lenders have a small but rising number of borrowers on temporary hardship arrangements.
“Based on their latest assessment of the economic outlook, banks expect arrears rates to increase a bit further from here but remain low relative to history,” the RBA said.
The RBA notes that since the start of 2022, real disposable income has fallen by about 7 percent to be near its pre-pandemic level in per capita terms. Most mortgagors have seen 30-60 percent increases in their minimum home loan repayments since rates began rising in May 2022. However, only about 5 percent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers today have expenses exceeding incomes, giving them a cash flow shortfall.
Households are coping well due to a strong labour market, which is allowing them to increase their hours or get a second job if necessary. They are also drawing on large savings buffers, partly created by pandemic stimulus and lower spending during lockdowns, and have reduced their discretionary spending as necessary.
The loan arrears rate is highest among highly leveraged borrowers, however it is still very small at less than 2 percent. The share of mortgagors estimated to have a cash flow shortfall combined with low savings has risen over the past two years but still represents less than 2 percent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers. Unusually, the arrears rate among recent first home buyers is lower than average, possibly reflecting the Bank of Mum and Dad enabling young buyers to purchase properties with less debt.
The arrears rate among borrowers who rolled over from low fixed rates to variable rates in one hit – an event labelled ‘the mortgage cliff’ which was expected to hit hardest late last year – are managing their repayments just as well as other borrowers. “This resilience partly reflects that these borrowers were able to build up savings buffers over a longer period of unusually low interest rates,” the RBA said.
High income earners are depleting their pandemic savings at the fastest rate because they tend to be servicing greater debt. But they still have the highest savings and are likely using some of it to support continued discretionary spending. Conversely, the lowest-income mortgaged households grew their savings in 2023.
The RBA says nearly all borrowers should be able to service their loans even if inflation is more persistent than expected and interest rates remain higher for longer. While the RBA expects a rise in unemployment, it noted that historically mortgagors are less likely to lose their jobs. Many mortgagor households also have multiple incomes, and about half of all borrowers have enough savings to service their debts and essential expenses for at least six months. Lenders can also offer temporary support to borrowers who lose their jobs.
The RBA said most borrowers also have strong equity positions, which protects them from default and limits risk for lenders. Rising property prices last year gave homeowners more equity and banks have been issuing fewer high loan-to-value (LVR) loans since 2021. These types of loans are now at near-historical low levels.
“The share of loans (by number or balances) estimated to be in negative equity at current housing prices remains very low,” the RBA said. “While usually a last resort and very disruptive for owner-occupier borrowers, this would allow almost all borrowers to sell their properties and repay their loans in full before defaulting.”
Hypothetically, in a severe economic downturn during which housing values fell 30 percent, the RBA estimates that the share of loans falling into negative equity would increase to about 11 percent. The RBA said significant losses for lenders would only materialise if more borrowers became unable to service their loans.
Article originally published on Kanebridge News Australia
High rents and rising values are inspiring greater investor activity this year
By Bronwyn Allen
Fri, Jun 28, 2024 3 min
3 min
Advertised rents on houses and apartments have risen by more than 40 percent nationwide since the pre-pandemic period, with a shortage of rental homes and record levels of net overseas migration pushing weekly rents higher and reducing vacancy rates to historical lows, said Proptrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh.
However, Ms Creagh said the pressure in Australia’s rental market should ease over the next year as overseas migration falls, with the Federal Government expecting it to halve from here. Meantime, home values have continued to lift because the supply versus demand imbalance is now so great it is trumping the traditional dampening effect of rising interest rates on prices. Proptrack data showed the national median value lifted for the 17th consecutive month in May.
“Despite a rise in the number of homes for sale this year, strong population growth, tight rental markets, and home equity gains are all contributing to demand, while the supply side of the housing market has fallen short and as a result, home prices reached a fresh peak in May as robust demand has continued to push prices upwards,” Ms Creagh said.
More investors are in the property market this year due to strong rental yields and continually rising values. Ms Creagh said lending to investors had reached record levels in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia, which are the strongest states at the moment for capital city price growth and rental demand.
Proptrack has published data showing the top suburbs for rental yields in both the capital cities and regional areas of each state, as well as the suburbs with the highest capital growth over five years.
Here are the results for the five mainland states.
NSW
The suburbs with the highest rental yields for houses in Greater Sydney are Killarney Vale 4.2 percent, Watanobbi 4.1 percent, Blue Haven 4.1 percent, Woongarrah 4.1 percent and Airds 4.1 percent.
In the regions, the top rental yields can be found in Broken Hill 9 percent, Cobar 8.5 percent, South Lismore 8.3 percent, Boggabri 7.5 percent and Moree 7.2 percent. The top suburbs across NSW for capital growth over the past five years are Finley 126 percent, Culcairn 123 percent, Hay 108 percent, Broulee 106 percent and West Wyalong 105 percent.
Victoria
In Greater Melbourne, the suburbs with the highest rental house yields are Wollert 4.4 percent, Coolaroo 4.3 percent, Dallas 4.3 percent, Koo Wee Rup 4.2 percent and Roxburgh Park 4.2 percent. In the regions, the best rental yields for houses can be found in Red Cliffs 6 percent, Mooroopna 5.9 percent, Numurkah 5.9 percent, Stawell 5.8 percent and Morwell 5.6 percent.
The top Victorian suburbs for five-year capital growth are Warracknabeal 119 percent, Orbost 108 percent, Beechworth 102 percent, Myrtleford 100 percent and Euroa 99 percent.
Queensland
The suburbs with the highest rental house yields in Greater Brisbane are Laidley North 6.1 percent, Laidley 5.6 percent, Churchill 5.5 percent, North Booval 5.5 percent and Russell Island 5.4 percent. In the regions, the top rental-yielding suburbs are Collinsville 10.4 percent, Moura 10.1 percent, Moranbah 9.7 percent, Pioneer 9.6 percent and Blackwater 9.5 percent.
The Sunshine State’s fastest-growing suburbs for home values over five years are Mount Morgan 157 percent, Woodford 126 percent, Dysart 122 percent, Mount Coolum 121 percent and Worongary 114 percent.
South Australia
The suburbs with the highest rental yields for houses in Greater Adelaide are Eyre 5.6 percent, Elizabeth North 5.6 percent, Smithfield Plains 5.6 percent, Munno Para 5.4 percent and Salisbury North 5.4 percent. The best rental yields in regional South Australia can be found in Whyalla Norrie 7.9 percent, Risdon Park 7.8 percent, Port Pirie South 7.8 percent, Whyalla Stuart 7.7 percent and Port Augusta 7.6 percent.
The top South Australian suburbs for five-year capital growth are Elizabeth Downs and Elizabeth North – both at 135 percent, Elizabeth South 127 percent, Elizabeth East 123 percent and Hackham West 117 percent.
Western Australia
The suburbs with the highest rental yields for houses in Greater Perth are Hilbert 6.4 percent, Medina 6.3 percent, Stratton 6.3 percent, Balga 6.3 percent and Dayton 6.2 percent. The best rental yields across regional areas can be found in Kambalda East 12.2 percent, Kambalda West 11.2 percent, Nickol 11 percent, South Headland 10.9 percent and Newman 10.7 percent.
The top West Australian suburbs for capital growth over the past five years are South Hedland 135 percent, Rangeway 116 percent, Darlington 115 percent, Cooloongup 114 percent and Spalding 113 percent.
