HOW YOUR INCOME WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK

Stage 3 tax cuts will commence on Monday, providing 13.6 million workers with tax savings that they will see in their first pay packets of FY25. The average Australian wage earner on $74,500 per year will receive a $1,540 tax saving over the new financial year. The Superannuation Guarantee is also going up from 11 percent to 11.5 percent from Monday, providing the same worker with a $372 bump per annum to the superannuation payments they receive from their employer.

The Albanese Government amended the Stage 3 tax cuts in January to give every taxpayer a tax cut rather than only those on higher incomes. Many economists have argued the tax cuts will add to inflation, which is proving to be remarkably sticky. Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the May inflation figures showing a 4 percent annual increase in inflation, up from 3.6 percent in April.

The Federal Government decided to amend the legislated tax cuts in January to help more Australians with rising cost of living pressures. Official advice from the Federal Treasury said the amendments were “broadly revenue neutral” because they would cost almost the same amount as the original Stage 3 plan, which had already been factored into inflation forecasts. The amendments reduced the tax break for earners at the top end to enable tax relief for everyone. A Treasury document said the changes “will not add to inflationary pressures and will support labour supply”.

The tables below outline how the tax rates and tax brackets will change from Monday.

At a press conference after the Reserve Bank announced interest rates would remain on hold last week, Governor Michele Bullock said she expects some people would use their tax cuts to cover everyday expenses while others would save it.

“What we do observe in the data is that people who have mortgages – on average, not all – but people on average who have mortgages tend to try and put more into their offset accounts and their redraw facilities because they’re paying quite a high interest rate now on their mortgage and so they want to offset it,” she said.

A Westpac survey found Australians planned to save up to 80 cents for every $1 of tax savings.

“The results suggest consumers will use tax relief as an opportunity to repair their finances and rebuild saving buffers rather than spend,” said senior Westpac economist Matthew Hassan.

If taxpayers followed through on this plan, Mr Hassan said only $4.7 billion of the $23.3 billion in tax relief would be spent, equating to a spending boost of 35 basis points.

Gold is one of the market’s go-to hedges in rocky times. Don’t forget that gold miners’ stocks are too.

The stock market’s gains in 2026 belie the rocky macroeconomic picture: elevated inflation, heightened geopolitical tensions, and jitters about the artificial-intelligence trade. That backdrop, in theory, should be the time for gold to shine. Instead, the price of the yellow metal has tumbled more than 5% so far, after last year’s blistering 65% rally. In part, the U.S. dollar’s recovery has stymied gold, which benefited from the greenback’s weakness in 2025.

Even with the precious metal’s recent weakness, gold mining stocks could be the best way to profit from this year’s uncertainty.

Gold miners “are a valuable hedge against macro risks that would likely be damaging for equities,” BCA Research’s Noah Weisberger and Rishabh Shah wrote this week.

Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next moves to tackle inflation, the increasingly crowded AI trade, and steep valuations for tech stocks are just some of the drivers that could help gold’s price get on even footing— and lead to even bigger gains for miner stocks.

These stocks’ prices tend to outpace gold’s moves, because the companies have fixed operational costs. So when gold’s price rallies, their profit margins soar, and vice versa. For instance, the VanEck Gold Miners GDX +7.39% exchange-traded fund has fallen 11% this year as the metal has slumped.

Now, gold’s price just needs to stabilize to help miners’ stocks take off, and that seems to be happening. The precious metal has recently found support above the $4,000 level, and has stuck in a narrow range since the end of June. But its price rose ever so slightly in July, ending a four-month losing streak for the metal. Technical analysis also suggests that gold is due for a comeback.

Barron’s recently wrote that the pullbacks for both gold miners and the metal itself are overdone. Senior technical analyst Doug Busch noted that the VanEck ETF is on the “verge of a breakout” and has the potential to hit $11o in early 2027, up more than 40% from its current price.

Gold miners also have more than their role as a market hedge going for them. Their fundamentals are solid, too, says Chris Mancini, portfolio co-manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

“Precious metals miners are generating substantial amounts of free cash flow given profit margins of over $2,000 per ounce, and are returning this cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends,” he said in an email.

“Buying the miners is a cheap way to get exposure to the price of gold,” he added. His fund owns Newmont NEM +6.71%, a Barron’s stock pick last year, and Agnico Eagle Mines as top holdings, as well as miners Northern Star Resources, Endeavour Mining, and Kinross Gold K+8.59%.

Miners are better businesses than they used to be, the BCA team added.

“Capex is more disciplined, margins are high and rising…and they are largely independent of the AI story,” Weisberger, BCA’s head of equities, and Shah, a senior analyst, wrote.

That last part is key. AI is disrupting the software industry and many other services and information-oriented businesses, and investors have piled into AI stocks. But ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and other large-language models aren’t going to replace the need to mine for metals.

“Equity portfolios can benefit from exposure to quality that is uncorrelated to AI risk, and gold miners fit the bill,” the BCA team said.

They recommend that investors buy the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, which owns top miners such as Agnico, Barrick Mining ABX +7.24%, and Newmont.

An important bonus for big gold miners’ stocks is that their valuations are attractive after the gold’s pullback, too. The VanEck ETF is now trading at just a little more than nine times next year’s earnings estimates. That’s a big discount to its five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 14, according to FactSet.

What’s more, the ETF is currently valued at a more than 50% discount to the S&P 500 SPX -0.17%, which is trading for about 19 times earnings estimates for 2027. Mining stocks have typically traded at just a 25% discount to the broader market over the past five years. So there is significant upside for the group if valuations move back toward normal levels.

One factor that complicates mining stocks as a market hedge, of course, is if stocks bounce back, which has been the case so far in August.

But both the market and economic outlooks remain cloudy, and investors remain nervous about the Fed’s next moves and AI stocks. Gold miners should do just fine, even if the anxious mood on Wall Street persists.

HOW YOUR INCOME WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK

Millions of workers will see the impact of Stage 3 tax cuts in their next pay packet