It’s potentially good news for buyers, as low supply was a major element pushing prices higher last year
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A low supply of homes for sale was a key factor pushing prices higher last year, in defiance of well-established historical trends in which home values always fall when interest rates rise. But the tide may be turning in buyers’ favour, with PropTrack data showing a 22 percent increase in new listings coming onto the market across the combined capital cities last month compared to February 2023.
Senior REA economist Angus Moore said the 22 percent lift was the highest increase in new listings across the capitals for the month of February since 2012. “Property markets in capital cities, Sydney and Melbourne especially, saw a strong start to 2024, with the busiest January and February since 2012 across the combined capital cities,” Mr Moore said.
“Supporting this busier start to the year … was strong demand, unemployment that remained low by historical standards, strong population growth, tight rental market conditions, and a more stable outlook for interest rates.”
The Reserve Bank announced on Tuesday that interest rates would remain on hold for a third consecutive month at 4.35 percent.
“Markets are no longer expecting a further increase in interest rates, with an expectation of cuts as soon as the second half of this year,” Mr Moore said.
The biggest increases in new listings were seen in Melbourne with 35.4 percent more homes for sale, along with Sydney at 33.6 percent and Canberra at 32.2 percent. There was an 8.5 percent increase in listings in Brisbane, and only a 2.1 percent increase in Perth and a 1.1 percent increase in Adelaide. Listing numbers dipped slightly in Hobart and Darwin.
There was a 7.8 percent increase in new listings across the combined regional areas, with last month’s volume broadly in line with the pace of activity that has been typical for the month of February over the past decade. The biggest increases in new listings were in regional Victoria at 12.8 percent, regional NSW at 12.2 percent and regional Tasmania at 9.8 percent. Mr Moore said that while new listings increased only 1.6 percent in regional Queensland, this was the first year-on-year increase in new listings recorded since August 2022.
Senior REA data analyst Karen Dellow said recent data from realestate.com.au’s Residential Audience Pulse Survey showed homeowners were feeling more confident to sell. The survey revealed that one in ten owners were contemplating selling their property when the survey was taken in January. Seller confidence has shot up, with 43 percent of respondents considering it a favourable time to sell, up from 34 percent last year.
“Western Australia has the highest seller sentiment, with 63 percent of respondents expressing optimism about the current market, marking a substantial 70.3 percent increase from last year,” Ms Dellow said. “NSW, Queensland, and South Australia have also witnessed substantial growth in seller sentiment over the past year, with NSW up 53.8 percent.”
Ms Dellow said the primary drivers behind increasing seller confidence were rising prices and growing buyer demand. More than a third of sellers anticipated further price rises in the next six months, the survey showed.
“Lifestyle changes, such as relocating to a different area or seeking a property with specific amenities like a pool or more space, were the primary motivations for selling. Downsizing ranked second, reflecting the preferences of Australia’s ageing population seeking properties better suited to their evolving needs.”
Article originally published on Kanebridge News Australia
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The US housing market remains under pressure as high mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability and demand. Industry leaders say 2026 has been one of the toughest years for home sales, with slower price growth, weaker mortgage activity, and fewer buyers entering the market. However, experts say reduced competition and more price cuts could create opportunities for well-prepared buyers.
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The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.
Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”
Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.
The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.
But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.
Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.
“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”
Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.
Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”
Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.
Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.
