MORTGAGE HOLDERS DEFYING PREDICTIONS AND MANAGING DEBT
However, there is one group spending their savings at a faster rate than the rest
By Bronwyn Allen
Thu, Mar 28, 2024 10:33am
3 min
3 min
The number of home loans in arrears are less than one percent of all borrowers, defying predictions of dire outcomes from a ‘mortgage cliff’ and the impact of high interest rates and cost of living pressures.
Most borrowers are making their home loan repayments on time, and although the number of loans in arrears has increased since late 2022, they represent only a tiny portion of the market, according to the Reserve Bank (RBA). Less than 1 percent of all housing loans are 90 or more days in arrears, which is lower than the pre-pandemic peak.
In its latest Financial Stability Review released this month, the RBA said households remain under pressure from high inflation and interest rates, with consumer sentiment very weak. More Australians than usual are seeking support from community organisations, and lenders have a small but rising number of borrowers on temporary hardship arrangements.
“Based on their latest assessment of the economic outlook, banks expect arrears rates to increase a bit further from here but remain low relative to history,” the RBA said.
The RBA notes that since the start of 2022, real disposable income has fallen by about 7 percent to be near its pre-pandemic level in per capita terms. Most mortgagors have seen 30-60 percent increases in their minimum home loan repayments since rates began rising in May 2022. However, only about 5 percent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers today have expenses exceeding incomes, giving them a cash flow shortfall.
Households are coping well due to a strong labour market, which is allowing them to increase their hours or get a second job if necessary. They are also drawing on large savings buffers, partly created by pandemic stimulus and lower spending during lockdowns, and have reduced their discretionary spending as necessary.
The loan arrears rate is highest among highly leveraged borrowers, however it is still very small at less than 2 percent. The share of mortgagors estimated to have a cash flow shortfall combined with low savings has risen over the past two years but still represents less than 2 percent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers. Unusually, the arrears rate among recent first home buyers is lower than average, possibly reflecting the Bank of Mum and Dad enabling young buyers to purchase properties with less debt.
The arrears rate among borrowers who rolled over from low fixed rates to variable rates in one hit – an event labelled ‘the mortgage cliff’ which was expected to hit hardest late last year – are managing their repayments just as well as other borrowers. “This resilience partly reflects that these borrowers were able to build up savings buffers over a longer period of unusually low interest rates,” the RBA said.
High income earners are depleting their pandemic savings at the fastest rate because they tend to be servicing greater debt. But they still have the highest savings and are likely using some of it to support continued discretionary spending. Conversely, the lowest-income mortgaged households grew their savings in 2023.
The RBA says nearly all borrowers should be able to service their loans even if inflation is more persistent than expected and interest rates remain higher for longer. While the RBA expects a rise in unemployment, it noted that historically mortgagors are less likely to lose their jobs. Many mortgagor households also have multiple incomes, and about half of all borrowers have enough savings to service their debts and essential expenses for at least six months. Lenders can also offer temporary support to borrowers who lose their jobs.
The RBA said most borrowers also have strong equity positions, which protects them from default and limits risk for lenders. Rising property prices last year gave homeowners more equity and banks have been issuing fewer high loan-to-value (LVR) loans since 2021. These types of loans are now at near-historical low levels.
“The share of loans (by number or balances) estimated to be in negative equity at current housing prices remains very low,” the RBA said. “While usually a last resort and very disruptive for owner-occupier borrowers, this would allow almost all borrowers to sell their properties and repay their loans in full before defaulting.”
Hypothetically, in a severe economic downturn during which housing values fell 30 percent, the RBA estimates that the share of loans falling into negative equity would increase to about 11 percent. The RBA said significant losses for lenders would only materialise if more borrowers became unable to service their loans.
Article originally published on Kanebridge News Australia
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رغم التوترات الإقليمية، يواصل سوق العقارات الفاخرة في الإمارات جذب المشاريع الجديدة، مع تصدر الواجهات البحرية المشهد. وتستعد دبي وأبوظبي ورأس الخيمة لإطلاق مجموعة من المشاريع السكنية الفاخرة، بينها مساكن تحمل علامات فندقية عالمية مثل Ritz-Carlton وJanu.
By Jake Emen
Thu, Oct 1, 2026 6 min
6 min
Long-term optimism remains strong in the United Arab Emirates, even as the war in neighboring Iran hinders home sales and demand for now.
While there have certainly been residential and commercial real estate projects across the U.A.E. that have been paused or delayed due to the turmoil experienced across the region, by and large, new developments continue to be launched.
That’s the case in the luxury residences sector in particular, where a string of starry, big-name projects are putting homes on the market before the close of the year. One trend is that the islands of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and the U.A.E. at large that are taking their turn in the spotlight, as waterfront living continues to be in demand and come at a premium.
For would-be buyers looking for resort-style homes along the shores, there’s an array of upcoming projects to get excited about. Right at the top of the list are hotel branded residences from the likes of Ritz-Carlton and Janu, the sister brand of powerhouse Aman, among five swanky projects selling this season.
The Ritz-Carlton Residences Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi
Luxury hotel branded residences are thriving, and the exciting Ritz-Carlton Residences Al Maryah Island development is a great example of why. Residents can expect hotel-style amenities and services from a locale within Abu Dhabi’s thriving waterfront district, with the creature comforts of home built into it.
This project was unveiled at Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2025 and promises to offer The Ritz-Carlton brand’s signature, timeless style and unwavering attention to detail. All units will feature floor-to-ceiling windows with enviable views, while residents will be able to take advantage of a resort-grade, infinity waterfront pool, immersive spa and wellness facilities, and a waterfront promenade with curated outdoor spaces as well as high-end retail and dining venues.
Sales launch in October.
Number of Units: 172
Price Range: Starting at $1.2 million
Developer/Architect: Killa Design and Tara Bernerd, with SAAS Properties.
Home Sizes: One- to four-bedroom residences ranging from 882 square feet to 4,962 square feet, and a five-bedroom, 13,713-square-foot penthouse.
Amenities: Wellness facilities including premium fitness center, massage room, meditation and recovery rooms, cold plunge and indoor pool. There’s also a rooftop pool, co-working lounge, executive golf lounge, and a games room and children play area.
Janu Al Marjan Island, Ras Al Khaimah
Just 50 minutes from Dubai International Airport, Janu Al Marjan Island aims to both feel a world apart from the city, while also offering supreme ease of access. The property has its own private stretch of beach and marina, ideal for superyacht mooring and serving as the scene of a beach club.
The Janu Residences will be positioned next to the Janu hotel, with residents able to take advantage of its many social and wellness spaces, in addition to resident’s-only amenities and services. Meanwhile, the adjacent Wynn Al Marjan Island, the U.A.E.’s first integrated resort, is in direct proximity as well.
Social life by the sea, with discretion and wellness on tap, not to mention a chance to get in early on burgeoning Ras Al Khaimah.
Sales launch in late October.
Number of Units: 73
Price Range: Starting at $2.3 million
Developer/Architect: Jointly developed by Marjan and Wynn Resorts, with architecture by SCDA Architects.
Home Sizes: One- to five-bedroom residences ranging from 2,117 square feet to 18,955 square feet, as well as five Marina Villas and a residential tower penthouse.
Amenities: An active lifestyle comes to the forefront with the Janu Spa and Wellness center and a padel court. Six dining venues and a signature beach club are key features for residents who want it all, right on-site.
Sei Saadiyat, Saadiyat Cultural District, Abu Dhabi
Located in the Saadiyat Cultural District, Sei Saadiyat combines its historic locale with a unique spin rooted in the Japanese concept of stillness and calm, or “Sei.” That foundational principle is what this community will be based on, with a mission to foster wellness and relaxation in all forms, including fitness and social connection.
A total of 778 homes will be spread across six Jacobs-designed buildings. Aldar is also introducing a first in their residential portfolio in the form of their two-bedroom Kanso Lofts at Sei Saadiyat, featuring double-height, open-plan living in loft style spaces including an elevated bedroom.
Phase one sales launched in September.
Number of Units: 778 total (265 involved in this phase one launch)
Price Range: Starting at $800,000
Developer/Architect: Aldar with architecture by Jacobs and interiors by Kettle Collective.
Home Sizes: Residences range from 753 square feet to 2,238 square feet, in a range of floor plans including one- and two-bedroom apartments, three-bedroom Kanso Residences and two-bedroom Kanso lofts.
Amenities: Amenities tie into the brand’s ethos of stillness and calm: expect a Zen garden with serenity pool and outdoor yoga decks, along with numerous indoor and outdoor fitness areas, and hot-and cold-pool experiences.
Amali Canal Residences
Amali Canal Residences is located on Dubai Canal in Al Wasl. The community is suspended above the canal, and brings the presence of water even closer to home with a number of features including private plunge pools in every residence, and a swim-through, indoor-outdoor pool with a signature waterfall facade that would make the posh resorts of the Swiss Alps blush.
There will be no shortage of on-site entertainment and diversions, whether in the form of a private cinema and resident bowling alley, cigar lounge and library, padel and sports courts, a panoramic fitness center. Then there’s The Retreat, a wellness center incorporating spa, sauna, steam, onsen baths, hydrotherapy, and yoga and pilates studios. When it’s time for a bit of work in between the diversions, residents can use an executive boardroom, private studies and co-working lounges.
Sales launch in October.
Number of Units: 211
Price Range: Two bedrooms starting at $3.9 million; three bedrooms starting at $5.4 million; four bedrooms starting at $7.4 million; penthouse pricing on request.
Developer/Architect: Amali Properties in collaboration with AHS Properties, with architecture by Killa Design and interior design by HBA Residential.
Home Sizes: Two- to four-bedroom apartments ranging from 2,880 square feet to 7,800 square feet, in addition to four- and five-bedroom penthouses ranging up to 21,000 square feet.
Amenities: 55,000 square feet of interconnected amenity spaces including myriad lounges, infinity pools with cabanas, children’s waterpark and child care center, padel court and a rooftop secret garden.
Rixos Residences Al Reem Island, Abu Dhabi
The Rixo Residences on Al Reem Island, Abu Dhabi, are designed to match its island environs with the thriving culture and finance dynamics of the city. Panoramic water and skyline views bring both faces to life, in this East & West Properties project.
Residences showcase expansive terraces offering boundless views from within a community centered around three dedicated amenity zones: the Oasis, the Haven and the Gathering. Together, wellness, fitness, social life and relaxation are all available in a number of formats.
Less than half a mile from the coast, and only 10 minutes from downtown Abu Dhabi, Rixos Residences offers generous layouts and amenity-rich public spaces that deliver equally as well for family-friendly living as well as investors.
Sales launched in August.
Number of Units: 386
Price Range: One-bedrooms starting at $570,000, with larger loft units starting at $1.8 million.
Developer/Architect: East & West Property Development under the Ennismore portfolio, with architect Aedas and interiors by HBA Residential.
Home Sizes: One- to two-bedroom apartments as well as three- and four-bedroom lofts, from 954 square feet to 2,941 square feet.
Amenities: Wellness treatment areas as well as Turkish hammam and steam rooms, landscaped walking tracks, padel court, rooftop clubhouse and plunge pool, private cinema, and services including concierge, valet and security.
