Mortgage Rates Are All Over the Place—and That Could Be Good for Buyers

The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.

Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”

Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.

The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.

But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.

Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.

“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”

Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.

Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”

Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.

Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.

On a recent summer Sunday afternoon, Brooks Hiller was hunkered over his laptop at his apartment in Chicago, dialing in to hour three of a marathon series of conference calls on real-estate deals.

The 21-year-old isn’t a professional, and he doesn’t make a dime from this work. He is a rising senior at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business, where he leads a team of 20 undergraduates who manage about $12 million in equity.

Those students operate their own real-estate investment business, called Sample Gates Management, named for the Gothic-style limestone arches that are the gateway to the Bloomington campus.

Unlike the many student investment clubs that deploy university money or rely on donations, the Indiana group raises funds from third parties and invests in properties across the country, such as apartment developments and industrial parks.

As a high schooler, Hiller was so enamored with the program—by most accounts, the undergraduate-run real-estate investment group that manages the most capital—that he chose to attend Indiana with hopes of being a part of it.

Brooks Hiller with his parents Jeff and Heather Hiller at the Sample Gates on Indiana University Bloomington's campus. — Brooks Hiller, with his parents Jeff and Heather Hiller, at Indiana University’s Sample Gates in Bloomington in 2023.

“Students get the experience, the school gets a better education for their students, and the investors are making their money back and get to be a part of the program again,” Hiller said. “I really wanted to be part of that.”

The group’s success is emblematic of changes transforming both higher education and the real-estate industry.

An industry that once revolved around information shared at private clubs or events has become a highly digitized landscape. It’s now flooded with standardized public-market data, so much so that undergraduates can readily peer inside and participate on nearly equal footing.

Meanwhile, colleges in recent decades have championed what is called “experiential learning,” encouraging students to do the hands-on work that will teach them the practical job skills they can’t learn in traditional classroom settings. Plus, dozens of universities now offer real-estate degrees, minors or concentrations for undergraduates.

“At its core, this program wouldn’t have existed 30 years ago,” said Harvard University real-estate professor Avis Devine.

This summer, Sample Gates Management sold its first investment, an industrial warehouse development in Indianapolis. In about 16 months, the fund earned a 65% gross profit on that property.

“That’s a really fantastic return in this environment,” one that would be “good for sort of any professional firm, not just students,” said Tim Morris, a member of the board responsible for approving the students’ investments, who is a founder and co-managing partner of the real-estate firm Proprium Capital Partners.

That property was an “easy yes” investment, Tom Peck, the students’ faculty adviser, recalled. It would diversify the group’s investment portfolio, and a reliable tenant was committed to leasing the building once it was finished, Peck said.

Most of the fund remains tied up in investments, making it difficult to gauge exactly how well it is performing overall.

Aerial view of a large industrial warehouse building under construction with dirt lots and a few trucks. — Sample Gates Management sold its first investment property, an Indianapolis warehouse development, this summer. Gershman Partners/Citimark

A decade ago, there were only a few student-managed real-estate funds in the country. Today, there are at least 18, and two more are set to launch this school year, according to Mariya Letdin, a real-estate professor at Florida State University who has researched student-managed investment funds and advises one herself.

And yet, although a program like Sample Gates is an attractive resume line that provides unique experience among undergraduates, it isn’t necessarily a launching pad to help students secure jobs. Because of Wall Street’s summer-internship pipelines and early recruiting timelines, many of the 20 seniors in the group have already secured full-time jobs at global giants before they even touch Sample Gates funds.

In fact, the students’ professional experience—some of them participate in internships all three summers of college—is often a boon for Sample Gates. Students’ stints at institutional shops have left them with a “networking mindset” that “snowballs very quickly into a really, really good Rolodex,” Morris said.

At the Kelley School, where currently 278 students are majoring in real estate, faculty picked only 20 to manage the private-equity fund. The rising seniors were selected from Kelley’s already competitive roughly 60-student commercial real-estate workshop, in which students analyze deals and pitch them to mock committees.

In 2022, for the group’s first round of fundraising, Sample Gates raised $4.2 million from 46 investors, 40% more than their goal of $3 million. Last year’s cohort raised $7.8 million from 74 investors in the second round of fundraising, with one investor forking over $700,000. Some investors put money into both funds.

Construction site with two workers walking past new buildings. — The construction site of another project that Sample Gates Management invested in. Thanasi Georgiadis

Many of the investors are Indiana alumni now working in the real-estate industry themselves. They expect the students to return a profit, but they are also enthusiastic about fostering the young program and meeting standout students.

The student managers screen between three and eight deals each week, which could mean they evaluate up to 400 potential investments a year. However, between 2023 and 2025, they selected only 12 investments, ranging in location from Indiana to Arizona.

Once a potential investment passes an initial screening, a team builds financial models and meets with prospective partners to pressure-test the viability of a deal.

For students to move forward with an investment, they must present it to their investment committee, a board of 10 seasoned real-estate executives. The committee has to sign off on all deals, and they reject roughly a third of the ones the undergraduates bring to the table.

And if the students think they can pitch an investment without getting their eyes on the physical property—regardless of where it is located— they would best think again.

Some observers predict that students might be disappointed when they start their full-time jobs because of the shift from doing the highest-level work of managing a fund to being a lowly analyst at a large firm.

“To have all of these skill sets in a short period of time and then to go be an associate for Blackstone would be mentally defeating,” said Rhett Trees, an investor in Sample Gates and Indiana alum who is the chief executive of a Denver-based real-estate private-equity firm.