Apple closed above a $5 trillion market valuation for the first time, capping Tim Cook’s 15-year tenure and setting a high bar for incoming CEO John Ternus, as the company faces growing pressure to strengthen its AI capabilities and sustain growth.
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Apple AAPL 0.50%increase; became the second company to close above the $5 trillion mark on Wednesday, capping the Tim Cook era, and posing an implicit challenge to new Chief Executive John Ternus.
The iPhone-maker’s shares closed at a record, just enough to push the company’s market capitalization into territory that only chip colossus Nvidia occupies. Apple’s market value has surpassed $5 trillion six times previously during intraday trading, but it had never closed above that level, which it squeaked past on Wednesday, ending the day at $5.005 trillion according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Cook’s act will be tough to follow. During his 15-year tenure as CEO, which ended Aug. 31, Apple’s market capitalization multiplied by a factor of 13. He nearly quadrupled the number of iPhones sold annually. He grew its highly profitable services business from $10 billion annually to more than $100 billion. He launched the Apple Watch and AirPods, which together generate more than $30 billion a year. He poured Apple’s cash into more than $1 trillion worth of share buybacks and dividends.
Today, Apple shares trade at a premium compared with the overall S&P 500 even though the company’s revenue growth rate is slower than the index’s average. That is because the company’s shares are viewed as safe, and its business predictable, say analysts.
A key to Apple’s success under Cook is how it has limited capital spending, juicing the company’s returns for investors and greatly reducing the risks of its business. That has never been more apparent than during the AI build-out, when big tech rivals have rushed to spend gargantuan sums on data centers while Apple has focused on its core businesses making devices and selling high-margin services for them.
Apple investors are so confident in its business that they have driven up its shares despite big cost increases that threaten profit margins. The cost of memory and storage chips inside iPhones, Macs and iPads has skyrocketed as demand for those chips from data centers has led to shortages. Apple has responded by raising prices across its device lineup, including for older model iPhones that would typically get a price cut.
In theory, such a move could hurt Apple since iPhone buyers might wait longer to upgrade their devices. Yet since the first wave of price increases Apple shares have jumped 25%.
In part, that is because investors think Apple device buyers will pay the higher prices, enabling Apple to generate as much or more in total profits even if margins are down, said Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan. He added that Apple’s new foldable iPhone Duo is likely to be popular and that the new Siri AI will prompt iPhone upgrades.
AI has long been viewed as Apple’s Achilles’ heel. The company failed in its efforts to build its own frontier model, and it also allowed its Siri assistant to fall far behind rivals. ChatGPT revolutionized what smartphone users expect from chatbots.
Apple hopes to turn a corner with the new Siri AI. Built with Google’s help, Apple’s redesigned chatbot was released this fall. It still lags behind rival AI systems in key respects, though it has the advantage of being built directly into the device that many people already use, their iPhone. Apple also has access to more personal data, which could theoretically be used for compelling AI features, though new AI agents show the technology is advancing faster than Apple’s ability to keep up.
Tech rivals know how important it is to control the devices that people use to deliver their services. Perhaps most threatening to Apple, OpenAI is planning a family of AI-powered devices. It has poached hundreds of Apple employees to drive its device strategy. Apple responded in July by suing OpenAI, alleging it stole Apple trade secrets.
OpenAI has said it is “not aware of any evidence that this complaint has merit” and alleged in a new legal filing Wednesday that Apple poached one of its own employees who took confidential files with him. Apple said in response that it had found no evidence supporting the new allegation.
AI could be the battleground where Ternus makes his mark, either ushering in a new era of innovation and growth for Apple or finally losing its status as the company that has defined how people interact with computers.
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AI-powered travel agents are challenging online booking platforms, but Airbnb’s exclusive listings and direct customer relationships could give it an edge. Its next challenge: turning repeat guests into loyal customers through stronger rewards and innovation.
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AI agents like Muse can already find you the cheapest hotel room in Paris. But they can’t locate a cheaper version of that Catskills cabin you’ve been eyeing, because it might only be available on Airbnb ABNB -1.43%decrease.
Investors should pay attention to that distinction. When Meta Platforms META 3.38%increase launched its Muse agent last month, travel stocks including Booking Holdings BKNG -1.19%decrease, Expedia and Airbnb all fell sharply.
Airbnb, though, has a real chance to emerge as a winner from the upheaval. The catch: Its stock already reflects above-industry growth. To justify its valuation, Airbnb will need to turn repeat customers into loyal ones.
Online travel companies make much of their money by simplifying search and collecting fees on bookings. AI agents threaten that model.
But not all travel marketplaces are equally exposed. Booking and Expedia largely sell hotel rooms that travelers can also book directly or through competing sites. If an agent can find the same room elsewhere, it has little reason to favor either Booking or Expedia.
Booking and Expedia also sell sponsored listings that steer travelers toward particular properties. Wells Fargo estimates those will account for about 8% of Expedia’s revenue and a much higher percentage of profit next year.
Airbnb has more ways to adapt. More than half its listings are available only on its platform, and more than 90% of its traffic comes directly to its app or website.
The customer relationship doesn’t end after booking, either. Bernstein analyst Richard Clarke notes that 90% of Airbnb guests go on to message their hosts about arrival times, keys or local taxes, giving Airbnb a connection to both sides of the transaction.
How the companies have responded to the possible agentic future is telling.
Expedia quickly signed on as a Muse partner. Airbnb hasn’t, and Chief Executive Brian Chesky says AI chatbots have so far been a boon, sending customers to Airbnb’s website.
Chatbots might work for buying paper towels, he quipped at a Skift conference last month, but people enjoy planning trips. He argued that browsing dozens of homes isn’t something a text-based chatbot is well suited for.
Still, the AI jitters arrived just as Airbnb was persuading investors it deserved its pricey multiple. For years after its 2020 initial public offering, the stock—which trades around 25 to 30 times forward earnings—went nowhere. Investors saw a mature operator trading at a growth premium.
This year, Airbnb growth seems to be accelerating. The stock jumped in August after the company raised its full-year revenue-growth guidance with its second-quarter results. Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski credits a run of product improvements under a revamped leadership team.
Among the changes: letting guests reserve now and pay later, adding hotels, and a redesigned home page and app. Investors were also betting on what comes next, including thousands more hotels, car rentals and, eventually, advertising.
The irony is that some of those growth drivers push Airbnb closer to the kind of business Booking and Expedia run—the kind of business AI agents could threaten. Even if AI agents capture a large share of travel planning and booking, Airbnb would capture the demand. But it and others would slowly lose control over how customers find and choose properties.
That would undermine the advertising opportunity investors are counting on. The bigger point for Airbnb and other marketplaces is that losing control of customer acquisition could mean surrendering some of their pricing power and margins.
To bulletproof itself, Airbnb might look to another e-commerce giant that has so far kept AI agents at arm’s length: Amazon.
Like Amazon, Airbnb has a loyal customer base and hard-to-match supply. But it has nothing like Prime membership to make customers think twice before taking their business elsewhere.
That is where loyalty comes in. Business travelers stick with Hilton or Marriott because enough nights earn them perks. Leisure travelers rarely accumulate stays with one chain. Airbnb has millions of listings and plenty of repeat customers, but no broad rewards program. It has begun experimenting with credits on hotel stays, but it should make loyalty a priority, not just a promotion.
Airbnb also plans to launch its own AI agent next year. But travelers using an agent might still want it to search Airbnb, Vrbo, Booking and hotel websites alike, rather than limit itself to one company’s inventory.
Eventually, Airbnb might have to strike deals with agent makers, using its unique homes as leverage to negotiate favorable terms, says Gawrelski. Such deals, along with rewards for loyal guests, could over the long term eat into the company’s roughly 13% take rate, he adds. But if they bring in enough additional bookings, the trade-off could be worthwhile.
History offers a reason not to panic. The shift from desktop to mobile unsettled investors in Alphabet and Amazon, but both emerged as major beneficiaries. Companies with valuable assets can come out of a platform shift stronger, if they adapt quickly enough.
Airbnb has homes the bots can’t easily replace. Now it needs to give guests a reason to insist on booking them there.
